The Gulf of Maine is an international watershed in the North Atlantic stretching north from Provincetown at the tip of Massachusetts Bay in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to Cape Sable on the Bay of Fundy in the province of Nova Scotia in Canada. For over 13,000 years, the Gulf has been developed around access to the coast for fishing, trading, and recreation. Today, these coastal development patterns put the cultural landscapes, economies, communities, and aging infrastructure systems along the Gulf at risk.
Climate Futures on the Gulf of Maine uses place-based scenario planning to illustrate the risks, vulnerabilities, and plausible futures for ten infrastructure systems along the rim of the Gulf. Place-based scenario planning is a method of long-term strategic planning that creates representations of multiple, plausible futures that are used to inform decision-making in the present. While complementary to probabilistic models used to forecast future vulnerabilities, scenario-based planning shifts emphasis from statistical probability to ways of thinking about the future. The goal of place-based scenario planning is not to predict the most likely outcome, but to reveal biases and blind spots in complex and non-linear situations.
Climate Futures uses the medium of landscape representation to surface the cultural value systems embedded in existing infrastructural systems, and position landscape as a driver when evaluating design from individual infrastructures to the Gulf of Maine watershed.
Infrastructure > Public Health
YARMOUTH REGIONAL HOSPITAL
60 Vancouver Street
Yarmouth, NS B5A 2P4
Canada
Yarmouth Regional Hospital provides care to 58,000 people in Shelburne, Yarmouth, and Digby Counties at the tip of coastal Nova Scotia on the unceded land of the Mi’kmaq First Nations Peoples. 1 With 6,800 residents, the Town of Yarmouth is the regional center of southwestern Nova Scotia, and the hospital provides services for rural residents. 2
The Town of Yarmouth is located in Canada’s Atlantic Maritime Provinces, which were developed close to the ocean to provide access for fishing, trading, and shipbuilding. The landscape here is dynamic, shaped by high energy waves, shifting ocean currents and eroding glacial till. Across the coast, subsidence poses a major issue, especially paired with sea level rise. 3 4
The hospital campus is surrounded by water on three sides. Today, the grounds around the hospital, including the helipad, are located in an area classified as a “Climate Change Storm Surge and sea-Level Rise Sensitive Area” that is subject to more stringent requirements on development, including higher base elevations and setbacks for construction. 5 6
Vancouver Street is the primary access road from Yarmouth crossing over the Milo Lake Dam at the head of Yarmouth Harbor. The intersection of Vancouver Street and Main Street, Yarmouth’s primary road, is further classified as an “Extreme Sensitive Area” due to its vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surge and its importance connecting the Town of Yarmouth to the hospital. 7 8
In 2024, the Town of Yarmouth completed its largest infrastructure project in history, replacing water, sewer, and stormwater pipes at the intersection leading to the hospital in anticipation of a new emergency department with greater water needs. 9 This investment is emblematic of the critical work that municipalities across the Gulf of Maine must undertake in order to ensure that residents across the region have access to medical services.
The uncertainty around equitable access to hospital services, particularly during storm and flood events, provides an opportunity to evaluate facility-level adaptation measures including building elevations and site design, as well as regional emergency transportation planning.
Scenario 0: Storm of the Century 2030
All emergency services and access to the hospital are suspended after waves surge over the Hospital’s helipad and the main access road. Emergency generators are activated as well as temporary pumps after saltwater intrudes into municipal water and sewer pipes.
Scenario 1: Fortified Systems
A stone revetment and flood barrier are installed to protect the helipad and parking lots that service the hospital, which continues to expand its operations as a regional hub. A terraced system of wetlands filters run-off before it reaches the ocean.
Scenario 2: Catchment Commons
Helicopters land on the roof of the hospital in the event of an emergency, while the helipad and parking lots are depaved, decreasing the amount of impervious surfaces on the hospital campus. A waterfront park designed to restore salt marsh and coastal forest invites hospital patients out onto the grounds.
International Watershed | Gulf of Maine |
Ocean Drainage Area | Atlantic Ocean |
Major Drainage Area | Maritime Provinces |
Sub Drainage Area | Southeastern Atlantic Ocean |
Sub Sub Drainage Area | Tusket |
“Yarmouth Regional Hospital,” Nova Scotia Health, accessed May 20, 2025, www.nshealth.ca/locations-and-facilities/yarmouth-regional-hospital.
“Welcome,” Town of Yarmouth, accessed May 20, 2025, www.townofyarmouth.ca.
Some areas of Nova Scotia experienced land emergence, or uplifting, as a result of post-glacial rebound and the tilting of the coastline between 15,000 and 8,000 years ago. Yarmouth did not experience uplifting, and was left in relatively the same position relative to the ocean after glacial retreat. Nova Scotia Environment - Climate Change Unit, “Adapting to a Changing Climate in Nova Scotia: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Options” (Halifax: Province of Nova Scotia, September 2005), 7,https://climatechange.novascotia.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/Adapting_to_a_Changing_Climate_in_NS.pdf.
Yarmouth is located within the Tusket Islands Ecodistrict. Ecodistricts are a land classification model used in Nova Scotia that are used to describe distinctive geology, relief, landform, soils, and vegetation in specific places. The Tusket Islands Ecodistrict is characterized by soils that were formed from glacial till, with drumlin and salt marsh formations. Upland Planning and Design Studio, “Discussion Paper on Environment” (Yarmouth, NS: Town of Yarmouth, January 20, 2025): 8.
Town of Yarmouth, CLIMATE CHANGE STORM SURGE AND SEA-LEVEL RISE SENSITIVE AREA MAP, 1:2000 (Yarmouth, NS: Town of Yarmouth, 2021), www.townofyarmouth.ca/departments/planning-development/planning/sections-of-the-land-use-by-law/1493-schedule-g-climate-change-storm-surge-and-sea-level-rise-sensitive-area-map/file.html.
The 1976 Ground Hog Day Storm, a nor’easter that struck February 2-3, 1976, is often referenced as a benchmark for storm surge. Storm-driven surge amounted to 4.81 meters above normal high tide. Recent estimates combining high tide and storm surge equivalents with sea level rise estimate that a similar storm could flood buildings and infrastructures below a 5.48 meter elevation by 2100. See Upland Planning and Design Studio, “Discussion Paper on Environment” (Yarmouth, NS: Town of Yarmouth, January 20, 2025): 11 and Jeff Gushue and Town of Yarmouth, “Town of Yarmouth Municipal Planning Strategy” (Yarmouth, NS: Town of Yarmouth Planning and Economic Development Department, June 2016): 133.
Jeff Gushue and Town of Yarmouth, “Town of Yarmouth Municipal Planning Strategy” (Yarmouth, NS: Town of Yarmouth Planning and Economic Development Department, June 2016).
Across Canada, municipal governments have jurisdiction to the High Water Mark (HWM) while developments below the HWM are under federal jurisdiction, and not regulated by municipal regulations.
These upgrades separated the Town’s sewer and stormwater lines to reduce electricity use and decrease the demands on the Town’s water treatment plant. Town of Yarmouth, “Vancouver Infrastructure Project: Important Upgrades for Residents, Improved Water Security for the Yarmouth Regional Hospital,” Town of Yarmouth, December 11, 2024, getinvolvedyarmouth.ca/major-infrastructure-upgrades-main-vancouver-street/news_feed/vancouver-infrastructure-project-important-upgrades-for-residents-improved-water-security-for-the-yarmouth-regional-hospital.
