The Gulf of Maine is an international watershed in the North Atlantic stretching north from Provincetown at the tip of Massachusetts Bay in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to Cape Sable on the Bay of Fundy in the province of Nova Scotia in Canada. For over 13,000 years, the Gulf has been developed around access to the coast for fishing, trading, and recreation. Today, these coastal development patterns put the cultural landscapes, economies, communities, and aging infrastructure systems along the Gulf at risk.
Climate Futures on the Gulf of Maine uses place-based scenario planning to illustrate the risks, vulnerabilities, and plausible futures for ten infrastructure systems along the rim of the Gulf. Place-based scenario planning is a method of long-term strategic planning that creates representations of multiple, plausible futures that are used to inform decision-making in the present. While complementary to probabilistic models used to forecast future vulnerabilities, scenario-based planning shifts emphasis from statistical probability to ways of thinking about the future. The goal of place-based scenario planning is not to predict the most likely outcome, but to reveal biases and blind spots in complex and non-linear situations.
Climate Futures uses the medium of landscape representation to surface the cultural value systems embedded in existing infrastructural systems, and position landscape as a driver when evaluating design from individual infrastructures to the Gulf of Maine watershed.
Infrastructure > Air
PROVINCETOWN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
176 Race Point Road
Provincetown, MA 02657
Provincetown Municipal Airport (PVC) provides commercial airline and emergency evacuation services for the Cape Cod Region. 1 The Airport is situated on 331 acres of land leased from the National Park Service in the Cape Cod National Seashore, on the unceded land of the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe. 2 3 4
Today, the airport includes a single runway, taxiway system, aircraft parking aprons, an approach lighting system, navigational aids, and weather instrumentation. The runway is 3,500 feet long and 100 feet wide, with a single-story terminal building that was constructed in 1998. 5
The Airport was first constructed in the 1940s on sand dunes that were formed roughly 5,000 years ago in the post-glacial era by “sand deposits swept northward by littoral wave action along the outside of the Cape from the beaches and eroding sand cliffs of Truro and Wellfleet.” 6 The dune system that these sand deposits created are a fragile ecosystem shaped by drought, salt, and the nearly constant winds blowing off the Atlantic. The dunes are held in place by hardy herbaceous plants like American beach grass (Ammophila breviligulata), which are critical to prevent erosion. In the back dunes, sheltered from the winds, the Airport is surrounded by beach grass, as well as cranberry (Vaccinium sp.), beach plum (Prunus maritima), beach rose (Rosa rugosa), and bayberry (Myrica pensylvanica). 7
The airport was laid out to minimize environmental disturbance of the dunes in an area called Hatches Harbor on the southwestern tip of Cape Cod, surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean on three sides. Prior to European colonization, the Hatches Harbor area was a 400-acre undisturbed salt marsh. In the 1930s, an earthen dike was installed, blocking saltwater passage through the marsh, which was composed of two primary species, salt marsh hay (Spartina patens) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora). The dike was constructed to “prevent the flood tides entering the old inlet and leaving pools of salt water to stagnate and breed the pests.” 8 Instead, the dike had the opposite effect.
The dike lowered water levels on the upland side, making it impossible for estuarine fish to reach the pools and feed on “the pests” (mosquitos). Additionally, freshwater from rainfall and groundwater inflow changed the species composition from salt-tolerant plants and animals toward freshwater-adapted plants, including the advantageous common reed (Phragmites australis), which can shade out other marsh species in areas where wetland hydrology is disturbed. 9
In 1987, the National Park Service began a restoration project that installed four box culverts with tidal gates in the dike to restore the flow of saltwater into the marsh. 10 Since tidal exchange was restored in Hatches Harbor in 2005, ecologists have documented a decline in freshwater taxa, the landward migration of Phragmites, and the landward expansion of native halophyte 11 communities. While the primary objective of the Hatches Harbor Restoration project was restoring ecological function, the project was designed to protect the airport infrastructure from flooding. The sizes of the culverts were determined to ensure that the airport would not flood during a 100-year storm. 12 13
Despite these precautions, today the Airport is located within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) AE Flood Zone, at risk of flooding during a 100-year storm. 14 15 In addition to the airport itself, the access road to Provincetown Municipal Airport, Race Point Road is a low-lying road, parts of which are projected to be below mean high water by 2050. 16 17 Flooding is a new threat on a site that already faces environmental degradation from point-source pollution 18 including automobile exhaust, aircraft exhaust, salts, fuel spills, solid waste, and PFAs. 19
In addition to future flood risks, Provincetown Municipal Airport faces current operational issues that affect airport funding and maintenance. Due to a declining number of passengers, Cape Air, the Airport’s sole carrier, broke the terms of its contract with the Airport and ended year-round flights in November 2024. 20 Seasonal flights resumed in May 2025, but the Provincetown Airport Commission faces a larger issue: the 20-year Special Use Permit between the Commission and National Park Service has not been renewed since 2021. Instead, 1-year lease extensions have been granted as a stop-gap measure.
The uncertainty regarding the future of the airport provides an opportunity to re-evaluate the future of the airport built in the fragile dune habitat at Hatches Harbor, and consider other potential future scenarios, including armoring the system, or proactively restoring the ecosystem.
Scenario 0: Storm of the Century 2030
Hatches Harbor dike is overtopped, sending storm surge racing through the marsh and over the tarmac at the airport. Flights from Provincetown Municipal are grounded indefinitely. Simultaneously, Route 6, the Cape’s primary evacuation route, is flooded to the south in Wellfleet, cutting off emergency services to the Outer Cape by road and air early during the nor’easter. After the storm, overwash is cleared off the runway, revealing cracks in the tarmac. The estimated cost of repairs exceed revenues, and the Provincetown Airport Commission ends its lease with the Cape Cod National Seashore, beginning the process of decommissioning the airport.
Scenario 1: Fortified Systems
While a dike elevation project around Hatches Harbor faces delays, the Provincetown Airport Commission erected a permanent flood barrier around the runway and terminal buildings. The tarmac is resurfaced and cisterns are buried to harvest water during heavy storms. Emergency evacuation services remain limited due to increasing flooding, particularly during storms, along Route 6.
Scenario 2: Catchment Commons
The Town of Provincetown fails to renew its lease with Cape Cod National Seashore in 2030. The tarmac is depaved and terminals removed, followed by heavy metal remediation. The figure of the historic runway is most clearly visible in June, when the salt-loving chokeberries planted there erupt in bloom. Limited emergency air travel to the region is re-routed to Cape Cod Gateway Airport in Barnstable.
International Watershed | Gulf of Maine | Hydrologic Unit Code |
Region (HUC-2) | New England | HUC 01 |
Subregion | Massachusetts-Rhode Island Coastal | HUC 0109 |
Basin | Massachusetts-Rhode Island Coastal | HUC 010900 |
Subbasin | Cape Cod | HUC 01090002 |
Watershed | Cape Cod | HUC 0109000202 |
Subwatershed | Barnstable Harbor – Cape Cod Bay | HUC 010900020201 |
Woodard & Curran, Provincetown 2021 Hazard Mitigation Plan (Provincetown, MA: Town of Provincetown, 2021), 2-10.
Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe, “Mashpee Wampanoag,” accessed May 25, 2025, mashpeewampanoagtribe-nsn.gov.
The Cape Cod National Seashore was formed in 1964. Prior to 1964, the land the airport was constructed on was part of the Province Lands, owned by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. See National Park Service, “The Province Lands,” Guide’s Guide (Cape Cod National Seashore: National Park Service, 2010).
The Provincetown Airport Commission, a department in the Town of Provincetown, leases the airport from the National Park Service. CE Maguire, Inc. “Provincetown Municipal Airport Master Plan 1972-1992.” Provincetown, MA: Provincetown Airport Commission, 1972, A-1.
CE Maguire, Inc. “Provincetown Municipal Airport Master Plan 1972-1992.” Provincetown, MA: Provincetown Airport Commission, 1972, 82.
CE Maguire, Inc. “Provincetown Municipal Airport Master Plan 1972-1992.” Provincetown, MA: Provincetown Airport Commission, 1972, 82.
Norm Farris. “Hatches Harbor Habitat.” Accessed February 5, 2025. www.nps.gov/gis/gisday/gallery/caco/hatches.html.
This is a quote from a local newspaper, the Provincetown Advocate published on April 2, 1931. David W. Dunlap, “CCNS | Hatches Harbor,” Provincetown Encyclopedia (blog), accessed March 21, 2025, ptownencyclopedia.com/ccns-hatches-harbor-2/.
National Park Service. “Hatches Harbor Tidal Restoration Project,” April 18, 2015. www.nps.gov/caco/learn/nature/hatches-harbor-tidal-restoration-project.htm.
Norm Farris. “Hatches Harbor Habitat.” Accessed February 5, 2025. www.nps.gov/gis/gisday/gallery/caco/hatches.html.
Halophytes are plants that are adapted to saline conditions. See James Aronson et al., “eHALOPH: A Database of Halophytes and Other Salt-Tolerant Plants” (The University of Sussex, 2025).
Specifically, the culverts were designed to ensure that “during a 100-yr storm the maximum water height upstream of the dike would not exceed 3.05 m above mean low water to protect the airport.”
Several improvement projects have addressed flood concerns at the airport, both above and below ground, where fuel storage tanks and waste disposal systems have been designed for periodic high ground water during spring flooding. CE Maguire, Inc. “Provincetown Municipal Airport Master Plan 1972-1992.” Provincetown, MA: Provincetown Airport Commission, 1972, 82.
The FEMA AE Flood Zone notes areas that have a 1-percent change of being inundated by a flood event in any given year. The 1-percent annual chance flood is also referred to as the 100-year flood. See “Glossary,” Federal Emergency Management Agency, www.fema.gov/about/glossary and Woodard & Curran, Provincetown 2021 Hazard Mitigation Plan (Provincetown, MA: Town of Provincetown, 2021), 2-10.
The FEMA flood maps are available online in a viewer. See “FEMA’s National Flood Hazard layer (NFHL) Viewer,” FEMA, www.hazards-fema.maps.arcgis.com.
0.2 miles of Race Point Road are projected to be below mean high water by 2050 and 5.5 miles are expected to be below mean high water by 2070. In addition to the access road to the Airport, the Orleans/Eastham Rotary on Route 6 is a critical point. If submerged, the Outer Cape, including Eastham, Wellfleet, Truro, and Provincetown would be isolated from the Middle Cape. Woods Hole Group, Low-lying Roads: Provincetown (Provincetown, MA: Town of Provincetown, 2024).
Other options for transit exist between Boston and the Outer Cape: during the summer season from June to August, during which time the Provincetown to Boston fast ferry also operates. Barnstable Municipal Airport also provides service to Cape Cod. In 2019, “Stakeholders identified the Barnstable Municipal Airport as a critical airport on Cape Cod… it is important to note that the Provincetown Municipal Airport is also critical, but stakeholders ranked it under the Barnstable Municipal Airport because there is no control tower and it has less emplanements.” Cape Cod Commission. “2020 Regional Transportation Plan – Appendix H.” Barnstable County: Cape Cod Commission, July 15, 2019, 3.
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) defines point-source pollution as, “any single identifiable source of pollution from which pollutants are discharged, such as a pipe, ditch, ship or factory smokestack.” At Provincetown Municipal Airport, jet engines on planes are a source of point source pollution. See “Terms & Acronyms,” United States Environmental Protection Agency, accessed June 5, 2025, www.sor.epa.gov/sor_internet/registry/termreg/searchandretrieve/termsandacronyms/search.do.
PFAS are per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances. PFAs are widely used chemicals that break down slowly over time, and are linked to harmful health effects in humans and animals. See “PFAS explained,” Environmental Protection Agency, www.epa.gov/pfas/pfas-explained, accessed April 20, 2025.
The Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) provides tiers of financial assistance for maintenance operations. While airports that serve more than 10,000 passengers each year are awarded larger amounts of grant money, Provincetown Municipal Airport has not qualified for this assistance since 2020. Paul Benson, “Cape Air Resumes, but Provincetown Still Seeks Year-Round Carrier,” The Provincetown Independent, April 23, 2025.
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